Loyola Marymount

Conference:	WCC
Expected RPI:	258.0
Current RPI:	258
Expected SOS:	178
Current SOS:	178
Current Record:	10-20
Expected Record:	10-20
Current Conf Record:	6-14
Expected Conf Record:	6-14
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	7-4
Current OOC Record:	4-6
Expected OOC Record:	4-6
Expected OOC RPI:	255
Expected OOC SOS:	288

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
10-20	258.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Loyola Marymount.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	UT Arlington (108.0)	SB	A	85-80	L	0%
11-15	UC Riverside (300.0)	BW	H	76-64	W	100%
11-19	McNeese St. (297.0)	Slnd	H	92-86	W	100%
11-22	Incarnate Word (347.0)	Slnd	A	87-91	W	100%
11-25	Boise St. (50.0)	MWC	A	68-48	L	0%
12-2	Oregon St. (137.0)	P12	A	78-74	L	0%
12-6	Portland St. (170.0)	BSky	H	85-94	L	0%
12-9	Cal St. Northridge (340.0)	BW	A	57-74	W	100%
12-17	Washington (71.0)	P12	A	80-77	L	0%
12-22	Cal St. Fullerton (131.0)	BW	H	80-88	L	0%
12-28	Saint Mary's (40.0)	WCC	A	87-59	L	0%
12-30	Pacific (190.0)	WCC	A	88-82	L	0%
1-4	Santa Clara (264.0)	WCC	H	49-65	L	0%
1-6	Gonzaga (21.0)	WCC	H	66-85	L	0%
1-11	San Francisco (139.0)	WCC	H	67-65	W	100%
1-13	San Diego (143.0)	WCC	A	75-71	L	0%
1-18	BYU (67.0)	WCC	A	82-67	L	0%
1-20	Portland (285.0)	WCC	H	65-72	L	0%
1-25	Pepperdine (317.0)	WCC	A	71-70	L	0%
1-27	San Diego (143.0)	WCC	H	82-89	L	0%
2-1	BYU (67.0)	WCC	H	76-69	W	100%
2-3	Portland (285.0)	WCC	A	68-66	L	0%
2-8	Saint Mary's (40.0)	WCC	H	62-83	L	0%
2-10	Pepperdine (317.0)	WCC	H	85-79	W	100%
2-15	Gonzaga (21.0)	WCC	A	76-46	L	0%
2-17	San Francisco (139.0)	WCC	A	72-63	L	0%
2-22	Santa Clara (264.0)	WCC	A	64-65	W	100%
2-24	Pacific (190.0)	WCC	H	74-71	W	100%
3-2	Portland (285.0)	WCC	N	78-72	W	100%
3-3	Gonzaga (21.0)	WCC	N	83-69	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Loyola Marymount's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Loyola Marymount's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Loyola Marymount.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Loyola Marymount	WCC	26.51	26.51	32.84	32.84	-9.10	-9.10
Gonzaga	WCC	6.08	6.08	87.10	87.10	4.51	4.51
Portland	WCC	5.98	5.98	19.23	19.23	-3.68	-3.68
BYU	WCC	4.50	4.50	71.88	71.88	1.97	1.97
Saint Mary's	WCC	4.43	4.43	83.87	83.87	3.00	3.00
Pepperdine	WCC	4.43	4.43	13.79	13.79	-3.21	-3.21
San Francisco	WCC	4.42	4.42	53.33	53.33	0.29	0.29
Pacific	WCC	4.37	4.37	41.38	41.38	-0.75	-0.75
Santa Clara	WCC	4.36	4.36	33.33	33.33	-1.45	-1.45
San Diego	WCC	4.34	4.34	53.57	53.57	0.31	0.31
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	1.92	1.92	60.71	60.71	0.41	0.41
UC Riverside	BW	1.92	1.92	25.00	25.00	-0.96	-0.96
Portland St.	BSky	1.84	1.84	55.17	55.17	0.19	0.19
Washington	P12	1.82	1.82	61.29	61.29	0.41	0.41
Cal St. Northridge	BW	1.78	1.78	14.81	14.81	-1.25	-1.25
Incarnate Word	Slnd	1.77	1.77	13.04	13.04	-1.31	-1.31
Boise St.	MWC	1.75	1.75	72.41	72.41	0.79	0.79
Oregon St.	P12	1.74	1.74	48.39	48.39	-0.06	-0.06
UT Arlington	SB	1.72	1.72	59.38	59.38	0.32	0.32
McNeese St.	Slnd	1.70	1.70	33.33	33.33	-0.57	-0.57
UC Davis	BW	0.42	0.42	66.67	66.67	0.14	0.14
Long Beach St.	BW	0.36	0.36	41.94	41.94	-0.06	-0.06
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.36	0.36	16.67	16.67	-0.24	-0.24
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.34	0.34	70.00	70.00	0.13	0.13
Cal Poly	BW	0.31	0.31	24.14	24.14	-0.16	-0.16
San Jose St.	MWC	0.28	0.28	10.34	10.34	-0.22	-0.22
UC Irvine	BW	0.25	0.25	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
California	P12	0.24	0.24	25.81	25.81	-0.12	-0.12
Utah St.	MWC	0.23	0.23	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
Nevada	MWC	0.22	0.22	79.41	79.41	0.13	0.13
San Diego St.	MWC	0.22	0.22	67.74	67.74	0.08	0.08
Stanford	P12	0.21	0.21	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
Seattle	WAC	0.19	0.19	56.67	56.67	0.03	0.03
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.19	0.19	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
USC	P12	0.19	0.19	67.65	67.65	0.07	0.07
Arizona St.	P12	0.18	0.18	64.52	64.52	0.05	0.05
Hawaii	BW	0.17	0.17	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Idaho St.	BSky	0.16	0.16	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Oregon	P12	0.16	0.16	64.71	64.71	0.05	0.05
Weber St.	BSky	0.16	0.16	60.71	60.71	0.03	0.03
Washington St.	P12	0.15	0.15	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.14	0.14	13.33	13.33	-0.10	-0.10
Montana	BSky	0.14	0.14	77.42	77.42	0.08	0.08
Air Force	MWC	0.14	0.14	34.48	34.48	-0.04	-0.04
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.14	0.14	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.14	0.14	10.71	10.71	-0.11	-0.11
Lamar	Slnd	0.14	0.14	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
New Orleans	Slnd	0.14	0.14	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Southern Utah	BSky	0.14	0.14	36.67	36.67	-0.04	-0.04
Wyoming	MWC	0.14	0.14	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Utah Valley	WAC	0.14	0.14	65.52	65.52	0.04	0.04
Colorado	P12	0.13	0.13	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Utah	P12	0.13	0.13	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.13	0.13	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.12	0.12	44.12	44.12	-0.01	-0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.12	0.12	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
North Texas	CUSA	0.11	0.11	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Idaho	BSky	0.11	0.11	68.97	68.97	0.04	0.04
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
UNLV	MWC	0.11	0.11	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.11	0.11	80.65	80.65	0.07	0.07
Florida	SEC	0.11	0.11	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.11	0.11	83.33	83.33	0.07	0.07
Texas St.	SB	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.10	0.10	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.10	0.10	80.00	80.00	0.06	0.06
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.10	0.10	30.77	30.77	-0.04	-0.04
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.10	0.10	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.10	0.10	60.71	60.71	0.02	0.02
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.10	0.10	8.00	8.00	-0.09	-0.09
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.10	0.10	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
North Dakota	BSky	0.10	0.10	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Creighton	BE	0.10	0.10	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
DePaul	BE	0.09	0.09	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Hartford	AE	0.09	0.09	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.09	0.09	71.43	71.43	0.04	0.04
Oklahoma	B12	0.09	0.09	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Valparaiso	MVC	0.09	0.09	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.08	0.08	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Little Rock	SB	0.08	0.08	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
Belmont	OVC	0.08	0.08	72.73	72.73	0.04	0.04
Georgia	SEC	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.08	0.08	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Arizona	P12	0.08	0.08	79.41	79.41	0.05	0.05
UCLA	P12	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Illinois St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Appalachian St.	SB	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia St.	SB	0.08	0.08	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
Alabama	SEC	0.07	0.07	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.07	0.07	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.07	0.07	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
IUPUI	Horz	0.07	0.07	32.14	32.14	-0.03	-0.03
Ohio St.	B10	0.07	0.07	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
Texas	B12	0.07	0.07	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Villanova	BE	0.07	0.07	88.24	88.24	0.06	0.06
Houston	Amer	0.07	0.07	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
UTEP	CUSA	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Fresno St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Colorado St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Montana St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Canisius	MAAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Texas A&M	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Radford	BSth	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Dayton	A10	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia Southern	SB	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.05	0.05	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	12.50	12.50	-0.04	-0.04
Princeton	Ivy	0.05	0.05	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
UMKC	WAC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
Binghamton	AE	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
George Mason	A10	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan	B10	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Butler	BE	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Duke	ACC	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Iowa St.	B12	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.03	0.03	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
SMU	Amer	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Kansas	B12	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Marist	MAAC	0.03	0.03	19.35	19.35	-0.02	-0.02
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Providence	BE	0.03	0.03	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Saint Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
St. John's	BE	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
South Alabama	SB	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Troy	SB	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Western Carolina	SC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01